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Simcivic Update #6
Realistic PRA's - Coordinated Benefits
(Slow Growth Scenario)
Two images from our online Social Security Solvency
Simulator.
Benefits and Charts 1, side by side.
This scenario differs from the previous Slow Growth "Realistic PRA's"
scenario in two respects.
1) Benefits are 100% coordinated. Social Security benefits are reduced
a dollar for every PRA annuity dollar received.
2) All PRA's are used to purchase ten-year annuities at retirement, not
lifetime annuities.
As we learn from the simulator, the ten-year payout actually RAISES overall
benefits received.
Note the Target Benefit Schedule, adjusted
to 75% of the current law benefit schedule.
Note the outcome, Chart 2A. Payable benefits
level off at 75% by 2035, hold steady thereafter.
Note Chart 1B, Funds-to-Benefits Ratio. The
ratio is low, but level. The system (barely) shows long-term solvency.
Note Chart 3A, Benefit Sources as Pct of GDP.
The blue line at the top shows the benefit target.
Tax receipts (gray) help in meeting most of the target. PRA annuities
(light cyan) take care of the rest.
Results Page. You can use the settings on this
page to recreate our results for yourself.
Except for Coordinated Benefits and Ten-Year Annuities,
all the PRA assumptions are the same as in the first "Realistic PRA" Scenario.
Note, also, the target benefit level - set at 75% of the benefits that
would be paid under current law.
Note the "Benefits Actually Paid" line - $372 Trillion, paid
through 2075.
$286 Trillion is paid out in Social Security benefits, another $85 Trillion
in PRA annuities. (rounding error present)
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